Managing Catastrophic Risk with Alice Hill

In this episode, Sarah sits down with Alice Hill, to talk about her career path, current role as Catastrophic Risk and Resilience Expert at the Council on Foreign Relations and the escalating threats posed by climate change impacts on national security, hurricane and flood risk, and the US Electric Grid.

Transcript

Alice Hill (00:00):

You’ve had, as of September, already 23 events that have cost $1 billion each. The very most important thing that I think anyone can do about this is talk about it. It should be a part of your conversation. And in my opinion, it should be a consideration when you are deciding for whom you will vote. 

(00:21):

Climate change is considered a threat multiplier. It takes a bad situation and makes it worse. Then you layer on top of that – it’s not just the electric grid that’s getting hurt, that’s part of the damages that we’re seeing with these billion dollar events. But once the electric grid goes down, it causes just cascading harm throughout the community. We just see that without power- power is very vulnerable – outages are increasing as a result of greater extremes, and more damage occurs.

Sarah Johnson (00:50
):

Welcome to the Pathway Podcast. I’m your host, Sarah Johnson, and thank you for joining us for this episode. Pathway to Tomorrow is a nonprofit with initiatives and housing, environmental conservation, and water security. In this podcast series, we engage with leaders working on solving some of the world’s most challenging problems by exploring innovative solutions being implemented by leading NGOs, nonprofits, think tanks, companies and institutions focused on issues like homelessness, equitable philanthropy, environmental conservation, climate change, and water security. 

(01:32):

Our guest today is Alice Hill, a catastrophic risk and resilience expert. Alice is the David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her work at CFR focuses on the risks, consequences, and responses associated with climate change. Alice previously served as special assistant to President Barack Obama and senior director for resilience policy on the National Security Council, where she led the development of national policy to build resilience to catastrophic risks, including climate change and biological threats. Her co-authored book, Building Resilient Tomorrow, was published in 2019.

(02:09):

 In 2020, Yale University and the Op-Ed Project awarded her the Public Voices Fellowship on the Climate Crisis. Alice’s book The Fight for Climate After COVID-19 was published in September 2021. In 2009, Alice served as the Senior Counselor to the Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security, in which she led the formation of the department’s first ever climate adaptation plan and the development of strategic plans regarding catastrophic biological and chemical threats, including pandemics. 

(02:37):

While at the Department of Homeland Security, Alice founded and led the internationally recognized anti-human trafficking initiative, the Blue Campaign. Alice served as a senior research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution from 2016 to 2019, during which time she was awarded the National Institute of Building Sciences President’s Award and the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center Writing Fellowship. In 2016, Harvard University’s National Preparedness Leadership Initiative also named her Meta-Leader of the year. 

(03:05):

Earlier in her career, Alice served as supervising judge on both the superior and municipal courts in Los Angeles and as chief of the white-collar crime prosecution unit in the Los Angeles U.S. Attorney’s office. The Department of Justice awarded her its highest accolade, the John Marshall Award for outstanding legal achievement. Alice earned her bachelor’s degree in history and economics with distinction from Stanford University, and her law degree from the University of Virginia School of Law. 

Sarah Johnson (03:32):

Alice, it’s so wonderful to have you on today. Thank you so much for joining us.

Alice Hill (03:34
):

 Well, thank you, Sarah. What a pleasure to be able to join.

Sarah Johnson (03:38):

Thank you. So you started your career, Alice, as a lawyer, before joining the United States Attorney’s Office as chief of Major Frauds and becoming a supervising judge. You then worked for the Obama administration as a senior counselor to the Department of Homeland Security, advising on catastrophic risks facing the United States. Now, most recently, you’ve served as senior director for resilience policy on the National Security Council. Can you tell us more about your career choices and how all of these experiences informed your current role as a catastrophic risk and resilience expert and authority on the impacts of climate change?

Alice Hill (04:11
):

Well, sometimes for those of us who’ve had a varied career, it’s only looking back in hindsight that we can see how the pieces fit together. But I can tell you the skills I gained as a lawyer and then as a judge greatly assisted me when I shifted in 2009 to policy making. And that’s because as a judge, and as a prosecutor, you need to look at the evidence, determine what has occurred, and then make a lot of decisions around what you determine are the facts. And it turns out policy making is similar to that.  Although prosecution – you’re trying to convince a jury, typically, as a judge you are often the decision maker or the jury is the decision maker. 

(05:03):

As a policymaker, you’re trying to convince other policy makers that it makes sense to go forward, and evidence is particularly persuasive when it comes to that. Now, as to risk assessment, basically, as a prosecutor, you’re assessing a risk that has materialized and what should be done in the wake of the damage that has occurred. Similarly, as a judge, you are looking at facts after the fact and determining the proper outcome. As a policymaker, my shift turned to perspective assistance, to keep risks from going to a catastrophic level. But all of that experience in assessing risk, looking at what happens when risks unfold and there hasn’t been proper preparation, informed my ability to craft what I believed were policies that could be implemented, were legal, and that would result in change on the ground.

Sarah Johnson (05:59
): 

Thank you for sharing more about that, Alice. You’ve had such a storied career. In your recent book, Building a Resilient Tomorrow, you talk about how climate change impacts are jeopardizing US military readiness and also about national security threats that are emerging as a result of climate change. Can you tell us a bit more about this, and what solutions are being explored and implemented to mitigate these risks?

Alice Hill (06:19
):  

Yes, for some people, it’s not immediately obvious why we should be concerned about climate change and the threat to national security. If you take a very narrow definition of national security, it’s about military might, defense of the nation. But if you broaden that to include human security, it becomes much clearer what climate change will bring. So I was placed in the Department of Homeland Security, our largest federal law enforcement agency. It was born, of course, out of the events of 9/11. It’s sprawling. At the time I was there, there were 200,000 employees. It had everything from Federal Emergency Management Administration, FEMA to Coast Guard to Secret Service, to responsibility for our borders.

(07:11):

And in 2009, President Obama asked all federal agencies, including DHS, to determine whether and how they should prepare for climate change. And the impacts are what we’ve seen this year – extreme heat that’s debilitating for humans working outside, flooding and drought. So we looked at those things to determine what we should be doing, and it became clear that this sprawling security agency, every mission set of DHS, would be affected by climate change. Look at immigration – we have great pressure at our southern border. Some of that is as a result of worsening extreme events fueled by climate change. 

(07:59):

Climate change is considered a threat multiplier. It takes a bad situation and makes it worse. And because we see big storms that disrupt agriculture in Central America, we see hotter temperatures affecting coffee crops with a kind of coffee fungus at higher temperatures, which causes the crop to decrease, drought, similarly – people  move north in search of a better life. And then there’s also degradation of security within those countries, in part also because of extreme weather that has undermined the government’s ability to maintain security for the population and they want to get away from the cartels and others.

Sarah Johnson (08:41):

That makes a lot of sense. Thank you for explaining that. So, Alice, in a recent NPR article, you talk about the very significant threats that climate change poses to the US electric grid. Can you tell us more about this danger and what solutions are being explored and implemented in response to it?

Alice Hill (08:56
):  

Sure. When people talk about climate change, most of the discussion goes to the mitigation side of the discussion. And there are two primary sides of climate change that are involved in policy. The first is mitigation, which is to cut the amount of harmful greenhouse gas emissions or pollution in the atmosphere. That pollution is forming essentially a blanket around the globe,  trapping heat.  It’s just like when you’re a kid, or when you go to bed yourself at night on a cold night, you get in the covers, it’s kind of cold, and then overnight, your body begins to heat up because the covers are trapping the heat. Well, that’s what’s happening in very simple terms with this blanket of pollution. 

(09:42):

So one effort is to cut or reduce that blanket, the thickness of that blanket. And the other effort is to build adaptation, and that is to make sure that we are, in fact, preparing for climate change as we go forward. And as we talk about climate change, the emphasis on reducing emissions tends to overshadow the fact that these big events are already greatly harming communities and undercutting our ability to keep ourselves safe. This is particularly true for those communities that are underserved and the most disadvantaged.

Sarah Johnson (10:21
):  

And that leads us to our next question. In your work, you talk about billion dollar climate disasters like Hurricane Ian, one of the effects of climate change. Why are billion dollar disasters increasing in the US and what can be done about them?

Alice Hill (10:36
):  

Well, billion dollar disasters are increasing and I didn’t get fully to the answer to the question on the electric grid. They’re increasing because – and this is true of the electric grid – our infrastructure was built for the climate of the past. About 8000 years that humans have been building communities, settled, we have assumed, and we’ve enjoyed a stable climate. So climate varied within certain ranges, and we had a pretty good sense of what those extremes are. Those extremes are changing. And as those extremes change, our infrastructure, which was built to a climate that no longer exists, fails. And that is what we are seeing currently with the electric grid. 

(11:19):

If it’s hotter outside, the distribution system doesn’t work as well. Power lines sag. If there are wildfires, power lines can drop. If it’s very drought prone and there’s dry vegetation causing a wildfire, we see that hydroelectric plants can’t operate. This was very vivid in China this year. The hydro plants just couldn’t run. There wasn’t enough water. And unfortunately China chose to build more coal power plants to address that need. Similarly, we see with nuclear power plants as well as thermal gas generated plants that need cooling, that if the cooling waters get too warm, then you can’t operate the plants. So if it’s too warm outside and the bay or wherever the cooling waters are coming from has heated up the temperature of those waters, the plant needs to shut down. 

(12:07):

And this has happened to nuclear plants here in the United States as well as in France. Then you layer on top of that – it’s not just the electric grid that’s getting hurt, that’s part of the damages that we’re seeing with these billion dollar events. But once the electric grid goes down, it causes just cascading harm throughout the community, because if you don’t have the electric grid, you can’t pump gas. It’s very difficult to sustain public health hospitals for a long period of time. They have generators, but those will eventually run out. If you don’t have the electric grid, it’s difficult to have cybersecurity. So we just see that without power – power is very vulnerable- outages are increasing as a result of greater extremes, more damage occurs. 

(12:52):

Really noteworthy event this year, we have had as of September [2023], already 23 events that have cost $1 billion each. That is a record for an annual record. But we still haven’t completed the wildfire season here in the United States or the hurricane season. So we are seeing ever greater damages from what the scientists, in many instances can tell, are events that were directly worsened by climate change, the result of a new form of science called attribution science. But we are seeing payouts – someone pays, whether it’s an insurer or the community, the federal government or the family. Someone has to absorb that damage that’s caused by these worsening events.

Sarah Johnson (13:35): 

Alright. Well, thank you for explaining that, Alice. So moving on to our next question. In a recent article for The Hill, you talk about how climate change is increasing flood risks and the implications for those living in flood prone areas – so people that are in coastal communities. How prepared are flood prone communities to deal with this risk? And have local governments made any kind of provisions?

Alice Hill (13:58):  

Well we have quite a patchwork going on,  but I wouldn’t say there are any communities that have fully addressed the future flood risk from climate change. And of course, the amount of flood risk depends, in coastal areas, on sea level rise and then possible storm surge – that wall of water that’s pushed in by more intense storms. The more intense storms occur because the ocean waters are warmer and the atmosphere with more heat, holds more water and releases it all at once. So you get a lot of flooding. That’s what you saw in Houston during Harvey. A lot of rain falling at once, and our infrastructure is not built to properly drain that much water at once. It was built for events that were far smaller. 

(14:45):

So we’re seeing that some communities are making efforts.  Basic way this is preparing for all climate impacts – is to look at your vulnerability. And that would be to look at the risks to a particular geographic area. And then you look at the particular hazards. Build in a way that’s safe and you also make land use choices that are safe. When it comes to coastal flooding, there will be places that are underwater. Right now, we’re seeing on the eastern seaboard a lot of attempts to pump sand onto areas that are losing sand due to sea level rise and erosion. That won’t work forever. It props up the community for a moment, but we’re also going to see inland flooding, where communities that think they are not at risk are at far greater risk. 

(15:34):

In fact, just this week, the First Street Foundation – which is a private philanthropy that does modeling, you can type in your own address or you can go on Redfin and see the same information about the kind of climate risk your particular property faces – just completed an analysis showing that there are millions of homes within the United States that are facing significant flood risk, and eventually that will be priced into the market. It’s not, I think economists do not believe that the market is accurately reflecting what modeling is showing us will occur to these properties. 

Sarah Johnson(16:07
): 

That’s really interesting. And you said that people who are listening can go to the First Street Foundation’s website and to their address and see what the climate risks are that are associated with their property.

Alice Hill (16:16
): 

Yes, it will direct you to that. Or you can go to Redfin.com and type in your address. On the First Street Foundation website will be the study of the overall macro risk to real estate. The micro risk is what risk does your house have? But the macro risk is what risk is there to the properties across the United States. And there are big risks, including also wildfire risks.

Sarah Johnson (16:38): 


Well, that’s very helpful to know that we can take a look at that. So moving on to our next question, Alice. You have a new book coming out soon on the topic of climate change and affordable housing. Can you give us a preview of what this book will cover and what led to this becoming the topic of your next book?

Alice Hill (16:53): 

As I thought about climate change, of course I recognized that everyone needs a place to live. We all want a place to call home. What does climate change strike at? It strikes at home because virtually every corner of the globe will be affected by climate change, and that’s going to require altering how and where we build. So you could start by looking at if you’re in the Arctic, you’re suddenly discovering that the permafrost upon which your home may rest is melting. So you’re going to see tilting of the homes. If you’re in a coastal area, you’re going to see that you’re subject to flooding, and you might not have fresh water available. 

(17:35):

As saltwater moves inland, it contaminates our freshwater supplies and that means that some homes will have to have freshwater brought in. If you’re living in the southwestern United States, with the heat that comes with climate change and drought, you may discover that your taps run dry there, as Phoenix has discovered. Many places will suffer from extreme heat. Extreme heat affects the infrastructure itself. It can cause metal to kink. It can cause roads to split. So we will be continuing to see damage to housing. We already have an affordable housing crisis and that will be exacerbated. One of the places where we’re beginning to spot the real signs of stress to our housing market as a result of climate change, is in the property insurance arena. 

(18:29):

It is becoming difficult to find affordable insurance in a number of states as the risk goes up. Private insurers want to insist that those who are insured pay a premium that reflects the true risk.  So homeowners are discovering that they cannot obtain property insurance or that it’s unaffordable. And this is occurring in the western United States and along our Gulf Coast. It won’t occur everywhere, but it will occur in many places in the United States that there’ll be greater pressure. There are also other reasons why property insurance is going up – inflation, supply chain disruptions, it costs more to build and there are affordable housing crises. But this is an added layer of uncertainty for homeowners.


Sarah Johnson (19:16): 

This is very helpful information to consider, especially for first time homebuyers. 

Alice Hill (19:22): 

I would absolutely check on the risk. And before you purchase that house, make sure you talk to an insurer whether you can obtain insurance immediately, but you also have to look out in the future. If you’re signing a 30 year mortgage, even if you’re planning to stay – I think most people stay somewhere between 7 to 10 years -you want to make sure that insurance remains available. What’s happening to people in California is they’re discovering that although they had insurance when they first bought the home, there’s no longer insurance widely available except in a special backup plan run by the state.

Sarah Johnson (19:56
): 

That’s very important information to consider. So Alice I’m going to leave you with one last question that we like to ask all of our guests, for our listeners. What behavior changes should take place in the private sector as well as on an individual basis to build towards a more resilient tomorrow? Specifically with regard to climate change.

Alice Hill (20:14
): 

The difficult challenge with climate change is that climate change affects everything. As humans, we have a great deal of trouble imagining how catastrophic risk unfolds. We have what is called an availability bias, and that’s from Daniel Kahneman, he won the Nobel Prize for his research. Humans tend to assess risk based on whether they’ve experienced it or someone close to them has experienced it. With climate change, that almost by definition, won’t be true because climate change brings ever worsening events. So the flood that you thought could never be topped will be topped. So this year probably will be the hottest year on record for the globe since we’ve been keeping records. But there’’ll be hotter years going forward. Scientists are highly confident on that, and it’s hard for our brains to get around that. 

(21:10):

So the first thing is that we need greater education of all of us, of what climate change risk is and why it matters. And then for the private sector, that means they need to start thinking through how will climate change affect our operations?  Leaving aside the mitigation issue, and everyone needs to do their part to cut their greenhouse gases so that we avoid the very worst of heating, which brings the very worst of events. But how will climate change affect business operations? Will your employees be able to get to work? 

(21:46):

I’ll give you a great example. The US has its crown jewel of military installations in Norfolk, Virginia. They have 47 different installations. All branches of the service are represented. It’s the largest naval port in the world. Its employees on those bases, 90% of them live off base, so they have to get to base. But that area of the United States is uniquely challenged by sea level rise and also subsidence, where the land is simply sinking. So on my very first day in the White House, I’m visited by a representative from Norfolk. And that person says you need to help us. I say okay. He goes well, we just finished a light rail – where I think they got something like $90 million from the federal government to build the light rail to help with transportation to the bases, to the installations. But he said, we didn’t account for sea level rise. So it’s already flooding. 

(22:42):

And that’s the kind of decision that we can no longer afford. We need to make sure that we understand where our goods come from. The supply chain disruptions that we saw in the pandemic occur with extreme weather during Hurricane Maria in 2017, in Puerto Rico, the medical community discovered that a lot of products – medical products to very precise calculations – are manufactured in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico, back to the electric grid, lost its power in the second longest power outage to date, lost power for almost a year. Even though the manufacturers had generators to try to continue to manufacture, their employees couldn’t get to work simply because there was too much debris and it was too difficult. 

(23:29):

As a result, for example, saline bags, where intravenous drugs are introduced, went up by 600%. Doctors, if they could get them paid that, and if they couldn’t, then they started using hypodermic needles to be able to give the drugs. And those prices went out the roof. So we need to look at our supply chain. Are we vulnerable to the places where  we have concentrations of manufacturing that make them particularly vulnerable to if that place is harmed by climate change?  And then just looking at the facilities themselves, are they in a floodplain? Do they have sufficient power? Do you have a backup plan? All of those things will keep the private sector safe. And if the private sector is able to continue to operate, that means our economy is stronger. 

(24:17):

Now, for individuals, I would say we should look at our own emergency preparedness. We cannot expect – I think we saw in Maui, we can’t expect an immediate response from the federal government. They say anywhere from 3 to 5 days. So you should be stockpiling your own goods or have a plan if disaster should strike. And we should all be working to cut our own emissions footprint, although anything any individual does is not going to change the trajectory. It will require government action on a global basis to change our trajectory. The very most important thing that I think anyone can do about this is talk about it. It should be a part of your conversation, and in my opinion, it should be a consideration when you are deciding for whom you will vote. 

(25:07):

Because climate change affects everything. it will affect each of our lives, even though our cognitive availability bias tells us, oh, it won’t happen to us. We also have an optimism bias – we believe bad things happen to other people until they happen to us, but somehow it won’t happen to us. That’s why we have a divorce rate of 50%. People walking down the aisle thinking till death do us part and it doesn’t work out. So talking about climate change and then making sure that our political system is adequately addressing the risks that are present now and those that are coming in the future.

Sarah Johnson (25:43): 

Thank you so much, Alice, for that. Some very insightful answers. And thank you so much again for joining us today. It’s been a pleasure to learn more about your work and to get your insights on these key challenges and risks that are being brought on by climate change and some of the solutions that you yourself have helped implement. Thank you so much for your critical work in this area. 

(26:03):

To our listeners, thank you for tuning in. And don’t forget to subscribe to the Pathway Podcast to get alerts on new episodes featuring thought leaders working in housing, environmental conservation, climate change and water security.